Investor intelligence · Dubai Land Department data · updated daily
Know where Dubai prices are growing, where they are stable, and where the risk is
Five years of registered transactions, scored community by community — plus the bulk buyers, land and building deals behind each month. Summaries are free. Full reports go to investors we approve.
Month, quarter, half-year and year to date
Registered sales across Dubai and the median price per sq ft, each period against the one before it. Green ▲ up, red ▼ down. Source: Dubai Land Department open data.
Monthly price index
Median AED per sq ft each month, Nov 25 = 100.
| Month | Index | Change | Median AED / sq ft | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 | 100.0 | — | AED 1,799 | 18,730 |
| Dec 25 | 103.9 | ▲ 3.9% | AED 1,870 | 19,171 |
| Jan 26 | 99.1 | ▼ 4.7% | AED 1,782 | 17,413 |
| Feb 26 | 96.6 | ▼ 2.5% | AED 1,737 | 17,024 |
| Mar 26 | 96.8 | ▲ 0.3% | AED 1,742 | 13,510 |
| Apr 26 | 98.6 | ▲ 1.8% | AED 1,774 | 14,023 |
| May 26 | 91.6 | ▼ 7.1% | AED 1,648 | 10,274 |
| Jun 26 | 95.2 | ▲ 3.9% | AED 1,713 | 13,931 |
| Jul 26 | 96.3 | ▲ 1.1% | AED 1,732 | 14,114 |
| Aug 26 | 94.9 | ▼ 1.4% | AED 1,707 | 11,844 |
| Sept 26 | 92.9 | ▼ 2.1% | AED 1,671 | 11,297 |
| Oct 26 | 90.8 | ▼ 2.2% | AED 1,634 | 11,900 |
What the data says · October 2026
A cooling market with firm prices
- 1Sales steadied, prices eased. 11,501 sales worth AED 33.8B were registered in October — 1.8% more deals and 14.8% more value than September, but still 42% below October 2025. The median price per sq ft slipped 2.2% to AED 1,634, about 4% below a year ago: a gradual correction, not a sharp one.
- 2Ready homes are taking share. Off-plan fell to 58% of sales from 65% in September (66% a year ago). Ready apartments traded at a median AED 1,434/sq ft against AED 1,764 off-plan — a 23% premium for the payment plan, 27% for 1-bedrooms.
- 3Land buying jumped. 1,430 plots changed hands for AED 12.8B, up from 888 plots and AED 9.4B in September. Al Rowaiyah First alone recorded 537 plot sales (AED 2.6B); Palm Jabal Ali 31 plots worth AED 1.35B (about AED 2,577/sq ft of plot). Developers and investors are securing land for the next cycle.
- 4Where demand moved. Jumeirah Village Triangle (+49%), Arjan (+15%) and handover-led Liwan (181 sales, mostly ready) gained; Majan (−42%), Dubai Investment Park First (−30%) and Al Hebiah First (−30%) lost pace. JVC remained the busiest community with 798 sales.
The economy behind the market
Population, business, banks and mortgages
Official figures as of 6 October 2026, refreshed monthly. Property demand follows people, jobs and credit, so these are the numbers to watch alongside prices.
People
- Dubai population28 Sep 2026 · Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment
- 4,807,185▲ +226,885 since January (+5.0%)
- UAE populationEnd of 2024, latest official · Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre
- 11.3 million▲ +615,687 in a year (+5.7%)
Business
- New Dubai business licencesH1 2026, mainland and free zones · Dubai Business Registration and Licensing Corporation
- 58,337▲ +58,337 new; 173,652 renewals
- New Dubai Chamber membersMarch 2026 · Dubai Chambers
- 2,70941% in real estate, renting and business services
- UAE economyQ1 2026, year on year · Central Bank of the UAE, Quarterly Economic Review
- +3.0%non-oil +4.8%; full-year 2026 forecast +1.6%
Banks and lending
- Bank lending (gross credit)July 2026 · Central Bank of the UAE
- AED 2,799B▲ +18.1% a year (Q2); +1.5% in July
- Lending to individualsJune 2026 · CBUAE via AGBI
- AED 598B▲ +14% a year; +2.3% in July
- Bank depositsJuly 2026 · Central Bank of the UAE
- AED 3,510B▲ +14.0% a year (Q2)
- Bank capital strengthQ2 2026 · CBUAE Quarterly Economic Review
- 17.0%capital adequacy; core equity (CET1) 14.5%; bad loans 2.8%
- Base interest rateOctober 2026 · Central Bank of the UAE
- 3.90%▲ +0.25 point on 17 Sep 2026
Mortgages
- Mortgage registrations (DLD)Jan–Aug 2026 · A G H analysis of DLD open data
- 30,675▲ +9.9% vs Jan–Aug 2025; value AED 134.5B (+12.6%)
- Mortgages, Jan–SepJan–Sep 2026 · Dubai Land Department
- AED 151.1B34,910 registrations
What it means for property
- Demand is still arriving: Dubai added about 227,000 residents in nine months, and almost 58,000 new businesses opened in the first half. Both feed rental demand first, then purchases.
- Banks are lending hard: credit is up 18% a year and lending to individuals 14%, with strong capital (17% adequacy, 2.8% bad loans). Finance is available.
- Buyers are switching to finance: mortgage registrations are up about 10% this year while total sales fell about 18%. A growing share of buyers are end-users using bank loans rather than short-term cash buyers.
- The headwind is the cost of money: the base rate rose to 3.90% in September. Areas whose net yield sits below borrowing costs depend on price growth, which has slowed.
SME counts and growth will be added once the latest official figures are published.
Area check · 5 years of real sales
Which areas are the safest bets?
We checked every registered sale since 2021 in 37 Dubai communities and asked three simple questions: did prices go up, did they go up steadily, and are buyers still coming?
Prices rose year after year without big swings. The lowest-risk choice.
Prices rose overall, with ups and downs along the way. Good upside, more patience needed.
Fewer buyers, or prices below their peak. Buy only at a clear discount.
- Top 5 steadiest areas, on the map
- 1Zaabeel Second9.3% a year · risk 28/100 · 8.2% gross
- Pins show the approximate centre of each community.
Five-year winners now losing pace
Strong long-term record, but prices fell in the last quarter or sales are well down this year.
- Wadi Al Safa 3quarter −13.5% · YTD sales −82%
- Dubai Creek Harbour (Al Khairan First)quarter −5.6% · YTD sales −34%
- Dubai Investment Park Firstquarter −11.0% · YTD sales +468%
- Al Hebiah Firstquarter −10.1% · YTD sales −82%
- Palm Jumeirahquarter −11.0% · YTD sales −32%
- Dubai Marina (Marsa Dubai)quarter −10.2% · YTD sales −95%
Picking up in the last six months
Prices up in both the last quarter and the last six months.
- Dubai South (Madinat Al Mataar)quarter +3.7% · 6 months +3.5%
Where prices moved last quarter, and why
Last 3 complete months against the 3 before, apartment price per sq ft. A price can move because homes really changed value, or because a different mix sold (more off-plan, more small units). The drivers show which.
- Mirdif▲ 6.8%
What moved it: ready -6.0% (AED 1066→1002/sq ft) · mix shift: off-plan share 8%→40% of priced sales (off-plan sells above ready here) · studios and 1-beds 38%→20% of unit sales (smaller units price higher per sq ft) · sales +27% (45→57)
- Um Suqaim Third▲ 5.6%
What moved it: ready +7.7% (AED 2554→2752/sq ft) · mix shift: off-plan share 52%→10% of priced sales · studios and 1-beds 50%→35% of unit sales (smaller units price higher per sq ft) · sales -7% (44→41)
- Downtown Dubai (Burj Khalifa)▲ 5.2%
What moved it: off-plan +24.5% (AED 3286→4092/sq ft) · ready +2.6% (AED 2488→2553/sq ft) · sales +6% (474→504)
- Wadi Al Safa 3▼ 13.5%
What moved it: off-plan -12.9% (AED 1649→1437/sq ft) · ready -6.7% (AED 939→876/sq ft) · sales -24% (332→252)
- Palm Deira▼ 12.8%
What moved it: off-plan -12.5% (AED 2926→2559/sq ft) · sales -42% (844→486)
- Dubai Investment Park First▼ 11.0%
What moved it: off-plan -11.3% (AED 1065→945/sq ft) · sales -24% (999→756)
| Area | Verdict | Price per sq ft | Growth per year (5y) | Year to date | Last 6 months (H) | Last quarter | Last month | Right now | Gross rental yield | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaabeel Second | Steady growth | AED 3,106 | +9.3% | +4.0% | −0.7% | −1.7% | −0.9% | Steady | 8.2% | Moderate |
| Dubai Creek Harbour (Al Khairan First) | Steady growth | AED 2,628 | +10.0% | +11.2% | +0.3% | −5.6% | −1.1% | ▼ Falling now | 7.2% | Moderate |
These are the 2 steadiest areas. Approved investors see all 37, including the ones to be careful with. Request full access →
How we work this out
- Price per sq ft: median for apartments and offices over the last 6 months.
- Growth per year: how much that price has risen on average each year, measured quarter by quarter over the last 5 years (from the area's first full year of data if shorter).
- Year to date: price per sq ft from January to the last complete month, against the same months last year. Last quarter: the last 3 complete months against the 3 before. Right now: Picking up = prices up over the quarter and six months; Falling now = down 3% or more over the quarter; Slowing = slightly down with sales well below last year.
- Gross rental yield: registered yearly rent ÷ ready-sale price. Gross means before service charges, maintenance and empty months, so the net return an owner keeps is lower.
- Risk: higher when prices swing a lot, sit below their peak, buyers are falling away, or the area depends heavily on new launches.
- All figures are Dubai Land Department registered sales and rents, updated daily. Past prices don't guarantee future ones.
Conclusion
Where to look, by budget
Ready: International City Ph 1 (~693/sq ft, median AED 455k), Dubailand Residence Complex (~752, AED 686k), Dubai Sports City (~879, AED 779k), Liwan (~1,000, AED 830k), JVC (~1,241, AED 970k).
Off-plan: Madinat Al Mataar / Dubai South (~1,764/sq ft, median AED 640k), Dubai Production City (AED 620k).
⚑ Sales under AED 1M fell about 7% on September — more choice and room to negotiate for buyers.
Ready: Arjan (~1,456/sq ft, AED 1.1M), Jumeirah Village Triangle (~1,295, AED 1.15M), Majan (~1,322), City of Arabia (~1,048), Business Bay ready (~1,853 vs 2,622 off-plan).
Off-plan: Damac Lagoons / Al Hebiah Fifth (~1,831, AED 1.25M), Jabal Ali First (AED 1.6M).
⚑ Business Bay ready homes trade 29% below off-plan in the same district.
Ready: Dubai Marina (~1,650/sq ft, AED 2.4M), Downtown / Burj Khalifa (~2,723, AED 3.6M).
⚑ Sales in this band held flat month on month — the most resilient segment.
Land: Palm Jabal Ali (31 plots, ~AED 2,577/sq ft of plot), Palm Jumeirah (9 plots, AED 400M), Dubai Hills / Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (11 plots, ~AED 2,716/sq ft).
⚑ Sales above AED 5M rose about 4% — the only band that grew.
If you rely on bank finance
Banks lend mostly on completed property. Under UAE Central Bank rules, an expatriate buying a first home up to AED 5M can borrow up to 80% of value (70% above AED 5M; UAE nationals 85% / 75%); second homes are capped lower, off-plan financing at about 50%, and monthly debt repayments at 50% of income. Budget an extra ~7–8% of price for the 4% DLD fee, mortgage registration, valuation, bank and agency fees. The UAE base rate is 3.90% after September's rise.
What this means: with off-plan's share falling to 58%, financed buyers of ready homes are a growing part of the market. Ready 1–2 beds in JVC, JVT, Arjan, Business Bay and Dubai Marina trade 15–37% below off-plan in the same areas — the bank values against those ready prices, not launch prices. Avoid off-plan with a large post-handover balance you plan to refinance.
Plots · whole buildings · bulk
Land led October
of land changed hands — 1,430 plot sales, including 537 in Al Rowaiyah First and 31 on Palm Jabal Ali (AED 1.35B).
paid for off-plan apartments over ready ones in October: AED 1,764 vs 1,434 per sq ft.
down from 65% in September — ready homes and land are carrying more of the market.
Selling a plot, a whole building or a portfolio?
We price it against the registered land and bulk deals in your community, and take it to the buyers active in that segment.
Buying land, a building or in bulk?
Approved investors see every large sale with its land number, the bulk batches by project, and the developer sell-through behind each launch.
Area snapshot
Off-plan vs ready, October
| Area | Sales | Off-plan | Off-plan AED/sq ft | Ready AED/sq ft | Ready discount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 798 | 50% | 1,530 | 1,241 | 19% |
| Madinat Al Mataar (Dubai South) | 646 | 97% | 1,764 | — | — |
| Al Rowaiyah First | 637 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Business Bay | 440 | 30% | 2,622 | 1,853 | 29% |
| Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac Lagoons) | 403 | 73% | 1,831 | — | — |
| Dubailand Residence Complex | 379 | 87% | 1,558 | 752 | 52% |
| Majan | 316 | 83% | 1,447 | 1,322 | 9% |
| Jabal Ali Industrial Second | 299 | 100% | 1,800 | — | — |
| Al Yufrah 1 (Sobha Sanctuary) | 252 | 73% | 1,930 | — | — |
| Arjan | 252 | 58% | 1,821 | 1,456 | 20% |
| Dubai Investment Park First | 243 | 94% | 849 | 993 | -17% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle | 217 | 74% | 1,582 | 1,295 | 18% |
Full reports · approved investors
Get the full daily, weekly and monthly reports
- — Weekly and monthly reports in full, every sale and community
- — All communities scored for 5-year growth, stability and risk
- — Developer absorption: which launches sell and which fade
- — Bulk deals, portfolio mortgages and largest sales with land numbers
- — The 10-page investor analysis in English and Arabic
Each request is reviewed by our team. Approval usually takes one business day.
Market information, not financial advice. Mortgage limits summarised from UAE Central Bank regulations; confirm terms with your bank.